15 October 2013

The Hunters Grim Challenge ~ Impact Models

In expanding off of usage rates you can find some interesting information about how effective a model is based on how much you use it.   There is a few caveats with the data here.  For one, Impact models with a low usage rate need more data before their place can be fully realized.  Two, Some of this is Subjective (i.e. the MVP selection).  And Third, some models impact the game heavily without actually doing something specific to become MVP or Winning the game... like the Krielstone for example, his impact on the game is statistically significant but when it plays out on the table their impact FEELS more intangible because their buff is mostly passive or the Pyre who is used mostly passively. 

What you can glean from the added information to usage is which models are strong enough with Grim to end the game for you with a victory.  The Impact Model Column is a combination of MVP and Killing Blow statistics.  For most the percentages are lower than you would think, don't be distracted by that, put it in relation to the rest.




Model Usage Rate MVP Killing Blow Impact Model
Long Riders Max 1.11% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Earthborn 8.89% 25.00% 25.00% 50.00%
Kriels Max 2.22% 0.00% 50.00% 50.00%
Sluggers Min 2.22% 0.00% 50.00% 50.00%
Mulg 15.56% 28.57% 14.29% 42.86%
Scattergunners Min 27.78% 0.00% 40.00% 40.00%
Burrowers Max 70.00% 11.11% 26.98% 38.10%
Bomber 31.11% 17.86% 17.86% 35.71%
War Wagon 4.44% 0.00% 25.00% 25.00%
Janissa Stonetide 5.56% 0.00% 20.00% 20.00%
Warders Max 5.56% 20.00% 0.00% 20.00%
Storm Troll 18.89% 0.00% 17.65% 17.65%
The Hunters Grim 100.00% 4.44% 12.22% 16.67%
Blitzer 38.89% 0.00% 14.29% 14.29%
Sons of Bragg 15.56% 14.29% 0.00% 14.29%
Slag Troll 37.78% 0.00% 11.76% 11.76%
Bouncer 10.00% 0.00% 11.11% 11.11%
Scouts 11.11% 0.00% 10.00% 10.00%
Fennblades Max 34.44% 0.00% 9.68% 9.68%
Thumper Crew 13.33% 0.00% 8.33% 8.33%
Bone Grinders Min 30.00% 7.41% 0.00% 7.41%
Scattergunners Max 18.89% 5.88% 0.00% 5.88%
Impaler 68.89% 3.23% 1.61% 4.84%
Mauler 24.44% 0.00% 4.55% 4.55%
Axer 2.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Burrowers Min 2.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Bushwackers Max 4.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Champion Hero 3.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Champions Min 1.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Chronicler 53.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Fell Caller 56.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Fennblades Min 3.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Fennblades UA 36.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Gatormen Max 3.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Gatormen Min 1.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Horthol 1.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kithkar 5.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kriels Caber 6.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kriels UA 2.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Krielstone Elder 22.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Krielstone Max 7.78% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Krielstone Min 20.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Long Riders Min 1.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Mountain King 8.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Pendrake 5.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Pyre 11.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Rok 5.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Runebearer 65.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Saxon Orrick 5.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Scattergunners UA 45.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Skaldi 1.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Sluggers Max 3.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Swamp Gobbers 2.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Swamp Troll 1.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Whelpsx5 31.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Winter 5.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Witch Doctor 2.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
My opinion and analysis; One of the first things I'm looking for here is models that have a high Impact number AND a high usage rate. These are models that in my mind have had enough data collected to signify that the models are being used consistently AND that these models Impact the game significantly when they do. For example Immediately I see Burrowers Max. For one they are rarely brought in a minimum unit so the stat isn't skewed. Secondly Their usage rate with The Hunters Grim is especially high. Finally Their Impact rating of 40% is quite high, meaning that out of all the times they are brought 4 out of 10 times they do something that gave the player the win or gave them a chance at winning. Conversely my own personal favorite beast with Grim 2 is the Earthborn. What the statistics tell me here is that when he is brought he is highly effective. This shouldn't be a suprise since he has a passive buff AND has the potential to take control of the game if applied correctly. His usage rate is low enough however to suggest to me that he needs more playtesting. In my own personal stats however his Impact rating in my own games is right around 48%.... which is why I bring him alot. Really many of the high impact models listed aren't much of a surprise, however, this interpretation of the data does suggest what we have guessed all along. Mortalilty helps certain models much more than others, such as the Sluggers, Scattergunners, and the Blitzer. Final note, alot of models have a zero impact model rating, some of that is because of the difference between min/max units or the fact that their impact appears to be more passive. There are some models down in the zeroes though that deserve to be there, a good example of a model that often has little impact on the game is the Winter Troll, I'd wager with more data his number would raise, but I'd also wager it wouldn't raise much. Conversely ROK's Impact on games would likely increase because of his ability to finish when necessary, however, I'd be willing to say his Impact rate remains lower with The Hunters Grim than it would with other casters because of the way most people use him. Our Ranged heavy hitters get a big boost from The Hunters Grim thanks to Mortality. This isn't due to the fact that Mortality is better at range but more so that you can apply more damage from range than you can at melee. So, take it as you will, but that is my take on Impact Models based on usage rates.

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